A review of the things you need to know before you go home on Monday; TD rates rise, farm and lifestyle block sales hot, retail sales pick up, ATMs fall, swaps and NZDs move sideways, and more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

None to report today.

Kiwibank finished its 100-day special by 1.10%, falling back to 0.40%. BNZ has increased its TD 12 and 18 month offers to 1.10%. The Nelson Building Society has increased its rates by 6 and 9 months.

Farm sales are well ahead of last year with prices also on the rise. Last year may have been affected by a pandemic, but comparisons to April 2019 also show April 2021 to be hot. Sales of dairy units were particularly strong. There were 58 dairy farm sales in April 2021, following 32 in March and 26 in February, bringing the quarterly total to 116 sold in the past three months. April is the highest of any month since December 2013. This is happening as far fewer dairy properties are listed for sale. In April 2019, the ad portals offered 366 properties for sale; in April 2020 there were 317, but by April 2021 it had fallen to 207. The median price of a dairy unit jumped + 7.6% in one year and + 22% in two years. More data here.

Lifestyle Blocks Sales also experienced a boom month in April 2021, reaching record volume for any month, ever. 1,207 transactions were recorded, this is only the second time that more than 1,000 lifestyle block sales have been recorded in a month.

Milk Synlait (SML) is in trouble and is likely about to drop from the NZX50. Their share price fell today, taking the decline since early May to -8.2%. They were hurt by their relationship with A2 Milk (AT M). And they say it has obtained a waiver of its banking covenants for the current year, as it continues to be affected by ongoing shipping delays. He expects to post a loss of – $ 30 million.

the Capitalization of the NZX50 has now reached $ 126 billion, up 0.7% in one week. But for a month, it has fallen by -1.6%. Since the end of September 2020, when we started to follow the capitalization of this market in detail, it has increased by + 4.9% or + $ 5.9 billion. There have been big changes during this time with the highest profile being A2 Milk (AT M) which went from # 2 to # 10, and – $ 2.4 billion in value was lost by them alone. Other major slaughterers were Synlait (SML), Sanford (SAN) and scales (SCL).

ANZ has revised its farm milk price forecast for the 2020-2021 season upwards from + 5c to $ 7.75 / kg DM. Their forecast for the 2021-22 season has been raised from + 40c to $ 7.70 / kg DM. You can compare these new ANZ forecasts with those of other analysts. here (at the bottom of this page).

Rising retail spending on electronics and outdoor recreation this summer helped boost overall spending in the March 2021 quarter, Stats NZ said today. After adjusting for prices and seasonal effects, total retail sales volume increased + 2.5% in the March 2021 quarter after falling -2.6% in the December 2020 quarter. , they are up + 6.8% on the same basis. In value, they are up + 6.5% over one year. Electrical and electronic products posted the largest increase, offsetting large declines in the December quarter. Some analysts were surprised by this result because the area of ​​expected “supply disruptions” did not appear in these data.

The price of carbon appears to be languishing, leaving buyers who jumped right before the March 14 government auction a loss. This auction sold 4.75 million NZU at $ 36 each, with too many units offered to support the previous auction. They had risen to $ 39.50, but have since fallen to trade at just $ 36.55 and roughly where they were in December 2020. You can follow the carbon price in the right sidebar of our Rural section (desktop only) with data from Jardens Commtrade.

As a result of the high building consent activity reported by Stats NZ for March, independent analysis of Blackburn Management for Canterbury shows the trend continues in April when all three Christchurch-area councils surpassed 500+ for the second month in a row. The four months in 2021 are up massive 24% on the number of housing units granted compared to the same period last year. Over 60% of all new homes in Christchurch are part of multiple housing developments. National Stats NZ data for April will not be available until June 1, but is likely to reflect this data from Christchurch.

The RBNZ will release its May MPS on Wednesday. In advance, the NZIER Shadow Board has published his opinion on what they should do. Some members of this Shadow Board have strong opinions and this nuances the general view that the RBNZ should actively consider tightening. (Professor Arthur Grimes’ comments are particularly interesting.)

MTF Finance has reported half-year profit of $ 4.4 million, a reversal in part due to the reversal of certain provisions for past bad debts. Say it “The next six months will be both stimulating and exciting …”.

The price of gold is now at US $ 1,884 at the start of Asian trading and up + US $ 3 from final trading in New York last week.

The NZX50 Capital Index started this week down -0.4% at the end of today. Meanwhile, the ASX200 limped unchanged in a faltering haze of uncertainty. The very large Tokyo market opened the week up + 0.2%, but Hong Kong is down -0.7% at the start of trading, and Shanghai is down -0.2%. S & P500 futures trading suggests Wall Street will open + 0.2%.

We do not yet have today’s closing swap rates. If there are any significant movements today, we will note them here later when we have the data. The 90-day bank bill rate fell again by -1 bps to 0.32% and its lowest in six weeks. That’s a drop of -5bp in one week. The benchmark ten-year Australian government rate is down -2bp since yesterday to 1.66%. The 10-year Chinese government bond was down -3bp to 3.09%. And the ten-year New Zealand government is down -1bp to 1.83% and still below 1.82% in the previous RBNZ fix (-5bp). The ten-year US government is down -1bp to 1.62% as markets remain in a risk-free tone.

The Kiwi dollar is slightly looser at 71.7 USc. Against the Australian, we strengthened slightly to 92.8 AUc. Against the euro, we changed little at 58.9 euro cents. This means that the TWI-5 is still at 73.2.

The price of bitcoin is now US $ 35,164 and up + 9.2% from where we opened this morning. Volatility over the past 24 hours is still extreme at +/- 10.5%.

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