Swap Rates – Hardouin http://hardouin.info/ Fri, 07 May 2021 13:51:17 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.7.1 The New York Times beats revenue estimates on higher digital subscriptions https://hardouin.info/the-new-york-times-beats-revenue-estimates-on-higher-digital-subscriptions/ Wed, 05 May 2021 11:08:50 +0000 https://hardouin.info/the-new-york-times-beats-revenue-estimates-on-higher-digital-subscriptions/

Bloomberg

Covid shockwaves brought poverty in Latin America to a new Nadir

(Bloomberg) – The Covid-19 pandemic has sparked a wave of poverty in Latin America, exacerbating declines that began in the past decade and plunging millions of people into extreme poverty. 22 million people – the equivalent of everyone in New York State – join the ranks of the poor from 2019 to 2020, unable to meet basic needs. In total, about a third of the approximately 600 million people in Latin America live in poverty or what the United Nations defines as extreme poverty: living on less than $ 1.90 a day. due to the intensity of the pandemic and the severity of its recession, the worst in two centuries. The region accounts for around 30% of Covid-19 deaths globally, despite having only 8% of its population. Its economy contracted 7% last year, more than double the decline of any other region. The crisis is distorting societies large and small. A huge library and cultural complex in Rio de Janeiro has become a besieged and besieged soup kitchen. In Bogota, idle musicians serenade the wealthy, who toss bags containing small bills with a coin or two for ballast at them as they fall from the balconies of luxurious apartments. In Mexico City, even lawyers resort to pawn shops. Workers who have achieved precarious stability find themselves unemployed. People working in the large informal sector find that traditional networks of casual employment are disrupted. For the unlucky ones, life is reduced to a constant search for food: in Calle Monte de Piedad in Mexico City, lawyer Juliana Ortega Aguilar, 36, waited in front of the charity that gives her name to the street. This centuries-old institution was founded to provide affordable loans to the poor. Inside, Ortega’s mother was pledging jewelry; the legal office where her husband works has closed amid the pandemic. Ortega said few cases are coming to his own desk. “We are a house full of lawyers, but there is no work,” Ortega said. “We all have to pay a rent or a mortgage, the electric bill and even if the kids don’t go to school, they have to eat and they get sick.” Across the region, people who have reached the middle class are After years of renting in La Plata, Argentina, Romina Bravo, 44, and her husband in 2017 bought a three-bedroom house where Benicio, 7 years old, and Valentino, 14, could grow up. They took out a government-promoted mortgage with payments linked to inflation, which was supposed to go down, but it skyrocketed, due to a lack of confidence in the peso and failed government controls. prices. Bravo lost his job at the bank for 22 years just before the pandemic, and his new job as a court administrator pays the equivalent of about $ 320 a month, a fraction of his previous salary. A mortgage payment freeze has just expired. Bravo put the house up for sale in March. “It’s either I eat or I pay,” Bravo said. “I hope for help. Otherwise, I’ll be the next kicked out. Latin America had made progress over the past decades. In 2019, half of its university-age population was enrolled in some form of higher education, up from 23% in 2000, according to Unesco. The middle class grew to 46 million households in 2018, from 33 million a decade earlier, Euromonitor estimated. Many countries have finally put an end to soaring inflation. Stable policies and currencies have paved the way for foreign investment and job growth. Brazil hosted the Olympics; Argentina held the G20 summit; Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has chosen Colombia for its first international town hall. The region’s only dominant economic driver has always been the exports of raw materials such as soybeans, beef and metals. China’s demand for these materials, a catalyst for growth in the 2000s, is on the rise again, sparking prices and giving policymakers hope for growth. But governments remain heavily in debt – Argentina, Ecuador, Suriname and Belize have all restructured their sovereign debt amid the pandemic – and few have money for social spending that could keep citizens afloat . progress is unraveling. The region lost more than 34 million jobs during the pandemic and workers saw more hours reduced than in any other region, according to the International Labor Organization. Instead of reaping the economic reward from rising commodity prices, the poor often perceive them as soaring food prices. Millions of Venezuelans, fleeing a broken and mismanaged country, have spilled over into the region, adding acute challenges. Public anger is spreading: In the face of its worst contraction on record, Colombia is trying to contain its budget deficit and ‘avoid your credit rating. downgrades likely to drive up borrowing costs. This week, the government shelved a plan to raise taxes after deadly street protests. “This is really bad news everywhere. Unless there are serious changes in social protection structures in the region, the outlook is not bright, ”said Santiago Levy, a former senior Mexican official who is a senior researcher at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “There is going to be a long term loss of human capital.” In Mexico City, the pawn shops are filled with artifacts of a better life. People – most of whom never surrender their guarantees – have left engraved gold wedding rings, refrigerators and washing machines. On a recent visit, those in the historic city center donated video game consoles, GoPro-type cameras, hair straighteners and blood pressure devices. An employee said she even accepted a gold vial with a teaspoon that appeared to have been designed for cocaine. “The middle class is no longer the middle class,” said Erika Guarneros, who buys and sells gold at her family’s stall. “He basically became the poor class.” Many Latin American governments provide social assistance to those who do not have formal employment. At the same time, they are increasingly focusing taxes on businesses and wealthy citizens to fund these expenses. The researchers warn of a scenario where companies hire less, productivity declines, and highly skilled workers simply quit or look for jobs off the books to avoid taxes. Ultimately, governments lose revenue even as the demand for aid increases. “It’s a vicious circle,” says Agustin Salvia, research director at the Argentine Social Debt Observatory in Buenos Aires. “The trend is ultimately towards economic paralysis in terms of job creation, productivity and wages in the informal sector which are poorer.” The informal sector makes up at least half of the region’s workforce, with people finding jobs where they can, often for money. The crisis disrupted traditional labor markets: in Bogota, musicians for years used business cards and word of mouth to find stable work, and mariachi troops could be hired directly from the streets. But since the pandemic ended weddings and quinceaneras, affluent neighborhoods have been filled with wandering musicians playing everything from folk tunes to opera. The business of “balconeo,” or singing on balconies, did not exist 18 months ago, said Enrique Gutierrez, who plays a small guitar known as a cuatro. “We sincerely hope we don’t bother you,” Maryoris Cordero, the lead singer for her band, said from the empty windows of an upscale building, speaking through a small amplifier. The toll of a harp rippled through the neighborhood as they sang llanero songs from the cattle grazing plains. After six hours of walking and playing, each of the four group members usually won around $ 7. when those labor markets collapse. Harpist Elio Materan, who is married to maraca player Karla Rivero, said their 9-year-old daughter Karlieth was chained to their schedule. Materan said. “When she has virtual lessons, she stays with her mother and I go out with the other members of the group.” The likelihood of an underprivileged Latin American child graduating from high school fell by around 20 percentage points last year, the lowest level since the 1960s, according to University professor Nora Lustig by Tulane. Meanwhile, graduation rates for wealthy children have barely budged. “It’s a huge shock that could turn into a lasting scar,” Lustig said. Income recovers with economic growth, she said. Nowhere is replacing aspiration with despair more literal than in Rio de Janeiro’s Biblioteca Parque Estadual, the hub of a network of state libraries where thousands of people have come to collect books before. the pandemic. Today it is hosting a massive feeding operation: nearly 19 million Brazilians have gone hungry in the past year, according to food security researchers. This is almost double the amount the government says it was in this situation in 2018. In the beginning, the emergency payments helped a lot of people stay fed. But aid has been drastically cut – and halted completely in the first three months of this year – as President Jair Bolsonaro grapples with a worsening budget crisis. In Rio, the national human rights agency man distributes around 4,500 meals a day and manages the library site. The city’s poorest – the homeless, the elderly, sex workers, the mentally ill and the unemployed – crowd behind metal barriers before breakfast, lunch and dinner.Leonardo Bispo Dos Santos, 44, used to come to the library to watch movies and use the Internet. Then the furniture removal company where he worked went bankrupt. Now he comes to feed. “After breakfast, I’m heading straight for lunch,” he said as the line started to move on a recent Friday. “If you don’t get there early, you don’t eat.” For nearly an hour, the hungry climbed in front, and other agents arrived on motorcycles to restore calm. Bispo Dos Santos hugged aid workers and stuffed an aluminum container with rice and vegetables. beans in his backpack. “It’s survival,” he says. He walked to the back of the line to restart the cycle. For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted source of business news. © 2021 Bloomberg LP

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A review of the things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; some retail rate changes, auction rooms have calmed down, Westpac warns about earnings, stable swaps, NZD company etc. https://hardouin.info/a-review-of-the-things-you-need-to-know-before-you-go-home-on-tuesday-some-retail-rate-changes-auction-rooms-have-calmed-down-westpac-warns-about-earnings-stable-swaps-nzd-company-etc/ Tue, 27 Apr 2021 00:58:03 +0000 https://hardouin.info/a-review-of-the-things-you-need-to-know-before-you-go-home-on-tuesday-some-retail-rate-changes-auction-rooms-have-calmed-down-westpac-warns-about-earnings-stable-swaps-nzd-company-etc/

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

CHANGES IN MORTGAGE RATES
BNZ has withdrawn its unique seven-year fixed mortgage loan offer. A non-existent demand is at the origin of the movement.

CHANGES IN THE TERM DEPOSIT RATE
Kiwibank and Heartland Bank today raised some rates on term deposits. More here.

QUIETER, WITH LESS SUCCESS
Auckland real estate agent Barfoot & Thompson saw his drop in auction success rate just 50% of last week’s activity as housing market activity slumps from its very active pre-Easter levels.

COLLATERAL DAMAGE
Diana Clement find there are many relatively common cases where the new denial of interest deductibility will hit first-time buyers hard, and she finds confusion over the definition of “new construction”.

OPENING OF THE ASB BOND OFFER
ASB has now provided More details of its wholesale fundraiser. It will be a five-year bond, and research $ 100 million “with unlimited oversubscriptions.” The indicative interest rate will be the five-year swap rate (currently around 1.04%) plus a spread of between 0.55% and 0.60% per annum. So about 1.61%, which is actually less than what they are offering retail investors for a five-year term deposit (1.75% per annum).

BIG RED EMBARRASSÉ
Westpac warned today, the Group’s six-month banking result was weak, with losses and write-downs in a set of six issues. This included a loss of A $ 113 million on the sale of Westpac Pacific. The bottom line was although they had a gain of + A $ 288 million from its initial investment in Coinbase, and another + A $ 18 million from its stake in BNPL Zip Co.

EXPECTATIONS EXPECTATIONS
South Korea’s preliminaries Q1-2021 GDP have shown that their economy is now above its pre-pandemic size. The recovery gained momentum, aided by strong exports and a pickup in domestic demand. Despite the expected headwinds (such as the return of the virus), South Korea is on track to be the first in this region to return to normal monetary policy.

GOLD SLIPS
After hitting US $ 1,781 in New York earlier today, it fell back to US $ 1,776 in early Australian and Asian exchanges.

EQUITIES SLIP AGAIN
The S & P500 ended today’s session slightly higher + 0.2%. Shanghai it opened -0.5% lower and Hong Kong is -0.2% lower when they opened. The very large Tokyo market opened down -0.3% at the start of trading. The ASX200 was down -0.4% at the start of the afternoon while the NZX50 Capital index was stable at the end of the session.

SWAPS & BONDS FIRM
We do not yet have today’s closing swap rates. If there are any significant movements today, we will note them here later when we have the data. They are probably little changed. The 90-day bank invoice rate is unchanged at 0.35%. The benchmark ten-year Australian government rate is up +2 basis points from yesterday at 1.69%. The 10-year Chinese government bond was up + 3bp to 3.21%. And the ten-year New Zealand government is up +3bp to 1.62% and now above the level of the RBNZ’s previous fixation at 1.60% (+4bp). The ten-year US government stands at 1.58%, similar to Friday’s level.

NZ SWEETER DOLLAR AFTER THE FIRM PERIOD
The Kiwi dollar is now at 72.1 USc after rising yesterday. Against the Australian, we are softer at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro, we are firmer at 59.8 euro cents. This means the TWI-5 is up slightly at 73.8, although it’s a bit lower than where we started this morning.

BITCOIN COLLECTORS
The price of bitcoin is now at US $ 53,932 and + 9.0% higher than this time on Friday. Basically he’s back to where he was for most of the week before the last one. But he was very unstable between the two. Over the past 24 hours, volatility has been less extreme at +/- 2.4%.

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Which females should I sell? https://hardouin.info/which-females-should-i-sell/ Mon, 26 Apr 2021 04:12:21 +0000 https://hardouin.info/which-females-should-i-sell/

Female sales are expected to contribute almost half of cattle sales in any beef business, so choosing which ones to sell can have a huge impact on profitability because:

  • male sales are usually a priority in management strategies and genetic selection, and female sales may be overlooked
  • successful breeders mean a successful herd
  • genetic progress and herd structure are improved.

In intensively managed controlled and mated herds, the sale of surplus females corresponds to normal annual livestock marketing plans. Stocks can be easily rounded up for the short term, and put options can be easily changed if needed.

However, in large, extensive and continuously mated herds, a breeding cow may only be courted once or twice a year, so the process of accumulating sufficient numbers and securing markets becomes more difficult.

On the spot, decisions must be made for each woman regarding survival, future productivity and market specifications. Here’s what livestock managers in these environments need to consider when deciding which females are kept and which should be sold this year.

Minimize the cow mortality rate

Minimizing mortality rates in breeding cows is critical to business success – it is the main driver of profit when rates exceed 5%. Thus, the process of selecting breeders for slaughter is a balance between keeping enough cows to produce enough weaners, maintaining stocking rates that do not exceed carrying capacity, and ensuring that as few animals as possible die off. the farm where their value can never be realized. .

A “no slaughter” approach results in overstocking and increased mortality rates, and profitability is compromised when all or bad breeders are retained.

Check the market specifications

Before sending cull females for processing, check the processing charts and make sure the animals weigh more than 180 kg dressed weight.

Remember that the stage of pregnancy influences the percentage of clothing for women, which is always lower than for men.

Cost of replacement heifers

Do you have suitable pregnant replacement heifers available to replace them with unproductive breeders? Keep this in mind when deciding which animals to slaughter.

Five slaughter guidelines to improve profitability

1. Bad Temperament: Breeders with a bad temperament are a potential work and safety problem and should be removed as soon as possible.

2. Deformities: Females with deformities such as bottle nipples, cancerous eyes and ingrown horns should be removed to ensure animal health and the welfare of the whole herd.

3. Fat, non-lactating cows over 5 years old: Many of these animals will be pregnant at the first round, so it is very likely that they will calve out of season and not start again the following year.

4. Senior Cows: Before starting the herding, the decision should be made to slaughter animals with broken mouths. Animals that lose teeth are difficult to fatten and sell, and their weaned offspring often have a lighter body weight.

5. Maiden Heifers: Young females above their critical mating weight who have failed to conceive should be culled, as their future long-term productivity is generally below average.

/ Public publication. This material is from the original organization and may be ad hoc in nature, edited for clarity, style and length. View full here.

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How to decide if a home renovation is worth it https://hardouin.info/how-to-decide-if-a-home-renovation-is-worth-it/ Sat, 24 Apr 2021 14:00:21 +0000 https://hardouin.info/how-to-decide-if-a-home-renovation-is-worth-it/

Thinking of improving your home? Ask yourself these questions to see if it’s the right decision.

Maybe you are tired of staring at your outdated kitchen, in its retro lime green appliance and linoleum tile glory. Or maybe you are ready to turn your unfinished basement into a playroom and sitting area for your kids.

No matter the details, renovating your home is a big decision because of the cost involved. Before going ahead, you need to make sure it’s a smart move.

Do you need to renovate?

The question of whether it is profitable to renovate comes down to two key questions:

  1. Will it improve the value of your home?
  2. Will it improve your quality of life?

For the first question, a good bet is to talk to a local real estate agent, who may be able to tell you which renovations offer a better return on your investment than others. Or, you can check out this home improvement guide.

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Improving your home will often help you get by some extra money when it comes time to sell your home. You may not get back all of your investment, but you can get a lot of it back.

For example, if you redo your kitchen and spend $ 40,000 in the process, you can only get $ 35,000 back in the form of a higher asking price when you sell your house down the line. But you don’t necessarily need a 100% ROI – many home upgrades won’t give you that, but they do. will allow you to better enjoy your home while you live in it.

And that leads to the second question. High-end countertops in your bathroom may be more pleasing to the eye than your current countertops, but if that bathroom is barely in use, an update may not be worth the effort. On the other hand, turning an unfinished basement into a usable living space could improve your quality of life on an ongoing basis.

How to finance home renovation

Many people cannot afford major renovations outright. If you don’t have enough money in savings to cover your home improvements, you may want to consider these options.

Borrow against your house

Whether it’s a home equity loan or a home equity line of credit (HELOC), you can borrow against your equity (the part of your home that you outright own) and pay that back over the course of the year. time. You will generally pay less interest with a home loan or HELOC than with a personal loan, so this can be a good option.

Refinance in cash

With regular mortgage refinancing, you swap your existing home loan for a new one and borrow the amount that is left on your original mortgage. But with cash-out refinancing, you borrow After than your current mortgage balance. You can use this extra money to finance your renovations. Mortgage refinance rates are quite competitive right now, so if you go this route, you may get a lower rate than what you’ll be charged to borrow through a home loan or HELOC.

Improving your home could make it a better place to live. It can also increase the value of your home. If you are going to renovate, choose your projects carefully and think about how you are going to finance them so that you don’t end up paying an excessive amount of interest in the process.

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Bitcoin Funding Rate Turns Negative After $ 48,000 Retest – Was It A Bear Trap? https://hardouin.info/bitcoin-funding-rate-turns-negative-after-48000-retest-was-it-a-bear-trap/ Fri, 23 Apr 2021 21:45:00 +0000 https://hardouin.info/bitcoin-funding-rate-turns-negative-after-48000-retest-was-it-a-bear-trap/

As Bitcoin (BTC) lost $ 52,000 support on April 22, the futures funding rate entered negative ground. This unusual situation causes shorts, with investors betting on falling prices, to pay a fee every eight hours.

While the rate itself is mildly damaging, this situation prompts arbitrage bureaus and market makers to buy perpetual contracts (reverse swaps) while simultaneously selling future monthly contracts. The cheaper it is for long-term leverage, the more incentive bulls are to open positions, creating a perfect “bear trap”.

BTC Perpetual Margin Futures 8 hour finance rate. Source: Bybt

The chart above shows how unusual a negative finance rate is and usually doesn’t last long. As recent data from April 18 shows, this indicator should not be used to predict market lows, at least not in isolation.

Monthly futures are best suited for long-term strategies

Futures tend to trade at a premium – at least they do so in neutral to u2014 bull markets and this happens for every asset including commodities, stocks, indices and currencies.

However, cryptocurrencies have recently seen an annualized premium of 60% (basis), which is considered very bullish.

Unlike the perpetual contract (reverse swap), monthly futures do not have a funding rate. As a result, their price will be very different from regular spot exchanges. These fixed-calendar contracts eliminate the fluctuations observed in funding rates and are the best instrument for longer-term strategies.

Annualized premium for OKEx 1 month Bitcoin futures (base). Source: Skew

As the chart above shows, notice how the premium (base) of 1 month futures has entered dangerously over-leveraged levels, exhausting the possibilities for bullish strategies.

Even those who previously bought futures contracts with the expectation of another rally above the all-time high of $ 64,900 were encouraged to reduce their positions.

The lower cost of bullish strategies could create bear traps

While a cost of 30% or more to open long positions is prohibitive for most bullish strategies, as the base rate slips below 18%, it usually becomes cheaper to long futures than to buy. purchase options. This $ 11 billion derivatives market has traditionally been very expensive for bulls, mainly due to the high volatility characteristic of BTC.

Bitcoin call options contracts for June 25. Source: Deribit

For example, purchasing upside protection using a $ 60,000 call option on June 25 currently costs $ 4,362. This means that the price must increase to $ 64,362 for the buyer to benefit from it – a 19.7% increase from $ 50,423 in two months.

While the call option contract gives infinite leverage on a small initial position, it makes less sense for the bulls than the 3% term premium in June. A 5x leveraged long position will return 120% gains if BTC reaches the same amount of $ 64,362. Meanwhile, the buyer of the $ 60,000 call option would demand that the price of Bitcoin rise to $ 77,750 for the same benefit.

Therefore, while investors have no reason to celebrate the 27% correction that has occurred over the past nine days, investors could interpret the move as a “glass half full”.

The lower the costs of bullish strategies, the more incentive the bulls are to set up a perfect ‘bear trap’, propelling Bitcoin to a more comfortable support of $ 55,000.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You need to do your own research when making a decision.