DRAM prices expected to increase 18-23% vs. Q / T in 2Q21

Although these negotiations are not yet finalized, the ASP of traditional DDR4 1G * 8 2666Mbps modules has already increased by nearly 25% QoQ as of now, according to current transaction data. This represents a higher price increase than TrendForce’s previous forecast of “nearly 20%”. On the other hand, prices are also increasing in various categories of DRAM products in 2Q21, including DDR3 / 4 specialty DRAM, mobile DRAM, graphics DRAM, and especially server DRAM, which is strongly related to PC DRAM. and therefore also undergoes an increase in price increases than expected. TrendForce is therefore revising its forecast for the overall DRAM price hike for 2Q21 upwards from 13-18% QoQ to 18-23% QoQ instead. However, the actual increase in the prices of the different categories of DRAM products will depend on the production capacities allocated to the respective products by the DRAM suppliers.

PC DRAM prices are now expected to experience QoQ growth of 23-28% in 2Q21 due to increased production of laptops.

PC DRAM contract prices increase with a higher margin than expected for 2Q21, mainly because major PC OEMs are now aggressively expanding their production targets. In addition, as the second quarters are typically peak seasons for laptop production, it is now estimated that PC ODMs will increase their quarterly laptop production by around 7.9% QoQ in 2Q21. Finally, when it comes to the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination rates remain relatively low across the world, which means that WFH and distance education are likely to persist and create continued demand for laptops, thus increasing the price increase of PC DRAMs.

]DRAM vendors will benefit from increased bargaining power in price negotiations as server DRAM prices are expected to increase 20-25% QoQ in 2Q21

In addition to the problem of insufficient DRAM supply, the server DRAM supply in 2Q21 benefited from the positive shift of enterprises towards IT investments as well as the higher than expected demand related to the migration to the cloud. There was already a supply deficit in 1Q21, and these developments will further increase demand in 2Q21. As a result, buyers and suppliers find it increasingly difficult to come to an agreement on prices. Suppliers are in a more advantageous position in contract negotiations because the DRAM market is an oligopoly. Therefore, compared to the previous forecast of nearly 20%, TrendForce now expects server DRAM contract prices to increase 20-25% QoQ in 2Q21.

PC DRAM, Server DRAM and Global DRAM planned ASP 2Q21E

	Revised Ver.	Original worm.
PC DRAM	Up to 23 ~ 28%	Up to 13 ~ 18%
DRAM server	Up to 20 ~ 25%	Up to ~ 20%
Total ASP	Up to 18 ~ 23%	Up to 13 ~ 18%

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