Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday – more than what seemed likely at first glance. Remember the big hike last Thursday? Well, the movements since then have all but eliminated its impact.
The first thing this morning was like mortgage rates could rise or remain stable. But, in recent days, associated markets have been unreliable indicators of the direction mortgage rates will take. So treat this prediction with caution.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jun 15, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Conventional 30 years fixed||3.048%||3.051%||-0.01%|
|Conventional 15 years fixed||2.495%||2.504%||-0.09%|
|Conventional 20 years fixed||2.863%||2.87%||-0.01%|
|Conventional 10 years fixed||2.47%||2.486%||-0.01%|
|30-year fixed FHA||2.817%||3.495%||-0.05%|
|15 years fixed FHA||2.514%||3.096%||-0.02%|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.5%||3.213%||Unchanged|
|Fixed VA over 30 years||2,375%||2,547%||-0.01%|
|VA fixed 15 years||2.25%||2,571%||Unchanged|
|ARM VA 5 years||2.5%||2,392%||Unchanged|
|Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our pricing assumptions here.|
Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jun 15, 2021)
Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?
After three business days of declining or stable mortgage rates, I will soon revisit my recent pessimism.
But three days is really nothing to assess rate trends. So my personal rate lock-in recommendations remain the same, although you can choose to get whatever you want out of them:
- LOCK if the closure 7 days
- LOCK if the closure 15 days
- LOCK if the closure 30 days
- LOCK if the closure 45 days
- LOCK if the closure 60 days
But, with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine, if not better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here is a look at the state of play this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was as follows:
- the 10-year Treasury bill yield rose to 1.48% from 1.43%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to track these particular yields on Treasury bonds, although less recently.
- Main stock market indices were mixed at the opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and increases mortgage yields and rates. The reverse happens when the indices are lower
- Oil price fell to $ 60.78 from $ 60.88 per barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates *). Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold price fell to $ 1,710 from $ 1,725 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Corporate Fear and Greed Index – Decreased to 54 from 64 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and switch to stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Warnings about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. The Fed is now a big player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (meaning rates are likely to go up) or low (meaning they might go down) to be a reliable indicator.
But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today seem likely to rise or remain stable. Just be aware that intraday fluctuations (when rates change direction during the day) are common at this time.
Find and Lock a Low Rate (June 15, 2021)
Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you should know:
- The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (well above $ 1 trillion) are expected to put continued downward pressure on mortgage rates. But it can’t work wonders all the time. Lily “For once, the Fed is affecting mortgage rates. here’s why‘ if you want to understand this aspect of what’s going on
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Lily ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
- Only “top” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they generally all follow the larger trend over time.
- When rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
- Refinancing rates are generally close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher following a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?
Today And so on
You probably didn’t need me to tell you yesterday how terrible February was for mortgage rates. And it should come as no surprise that March started with a few fixes.
The question is, are we just watching a short, shallow series of falls? Or is this the start of something sustained and useful?
Honestly, no one can be sure. As you know, mortgage rates often mirror the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds. And these are experiencing a mini-crisis right now.
This morning’s Financial Times headlined: “T-Bill Swing Raises Concerns Over $ 21 Trillion Market Health. And he then urged US regulators to “fix the problems of the functioning of the market”.
When such unknowables arise, my instinct is to be careful. But if you’re more adventurous and choose to try your luck on other falls, I can’t blame you. You just need to recognize the risk and be prepared to act quickly if this downtrend suddenly evaporates.
For more information on my broader thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday shortly after 10 a.m. (ET).
Through much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. New all-time weekly lows were set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
But the rates then went up. Freddie’s Feb.25 report puts that weekly average at 2.97%, up from 2.81% the week before, and the highest since mid-2020.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing industry and mortgage rates. .
Here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
The figures in the table below are for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie and the MBA were updated on February 18 and 19 respectively. But Freddie now publishes a quarterly forecast and his figures are from mid-January:
|Forecaster||T1 / 21||T2 / 21||Q3 / 21||T4 / 21|
However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there is certainly a widening of the gap as the year progresses.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been frightened by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to the more vanilla mortgages and refinances.
But others remain courageous. You can still probably find the cash refinance, home mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. Just shop more widely.
Of course, you should be doing a lot of comparison regardless of what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said:
Shopping around for your mortgage can save you money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Check your new rate (June 15, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from several lending partners every day. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.