Today’s goal is the main six-game slate that includes some of the best pitchers on Saturday. Slate Locks at 7:15 p.m. ET.
Three newbie pitchers in West Coast matches are FanDuel’s best prices:
- Jacob of Grom (R) $ 11,500, NYM @ SD
- Kevin Gausman (R) $ 11,200, SF vs CHC
- Clayton kershaw (L) $ 10,000, LAD @ ATL
- Yusei Kikuchi (L) $ 9,300, SEA @ LAA
Jacob of Grom authorized zero deserved race (three in total) in 18 innings pitched on the road. It was worse on the road, allowing for a .133 / .172 / .250 slash line. Brutal, right? deGrom allows the most runs the first time in the lineup (three of the four earned runs allowed), then stops the infractions. The Padres’ offense is slightly above average at home (109 Weighted cycles created more) and is no different against a right-handed home pitcher. This is the match to see tonight. deGrom is one of the top two pitchers on FanDuel and DraftKings according to the Bales model, damn the price.
Kevin Gausman allowed three earned runs in six starts in May, including five with over nine strikeouts par 9. He also had at least one win or quality start in every May outing. Gausman is facing an attack from the Cubs who at times struggled to stray from friendly limits, but has been better lately and even when he hasn’t scored much he’s won games. Chicago is averaging four points per game on the road, but averaged 4.8 points in May. It doesn’t seem like a major leap, but it is notable. Gausman was hit at home (3.15 TIME) but has a positive regression on its side (2.71 Expected Fielder Independent Pitching). I like Gausman because his count stats add up regardless of the situation, but he’s behind deGrom in my pitching pool.
He is the third pitcher on both platforms and leads the position in Pro Trends, and also has a 99% rating on DraftKings.
Clayton kershaw was better on the road than at home, but faced one of the best power offenses against lefties. Atlanta has experienced a boom or bust in home games against left-handed pitchers and depends on hard contact to get races. They’re in the middle of the pack for strikeouts but down in the walk rate, which helps Kershaw’s mastery in working the strike zone. Atlanta .282 BABIP may be in the bottom 10 in baseball in this scenario, but given the height of other teams’ BABIPs, their offense is more stable. Kershaw loses some appeal because his withdrawal rate down two out of nine on the road and because of the clash.
Yusei Kikuchi getting the price love is deserved after a strong May. He pitched 32 innings and allowed only 30 baserunners in total while striking out 34. His biggest downfall is the team hitting in his support. The Mariners have a worse wRC + on the road than at home, but higher ranked when registering outside of the wRC +. At least Seattle is consistent in its mediocrity. Kikuchi faces the best home offense against lefties, the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels offense is also in the top 10 Soft touch percentage (Soft%) and Groundball-to-Flyball ratio (GB / FB) but excellent with the high Home Run-to-Flyball report (HR / FB). I don’t trust Kikuchi against the Angels offense and I don’t trust the Mariners to keep pace offensively. Kikuchi is one of the top 10 launchers on both sites, but ranks lower due to price and comparison.
Alex cobb is only $ 6,900 on DraftKings and is in the top five options on both platforms. His salary on DraftKings is the third lowest of 2021 despite a positive game against the Mariners. I would always line up Cobb with Kikuchi on FanDuel in their clash. Cobb has at least 30 FanDuel points in five of the seven starts. The Angels are the second largest favorite based on a race differential of .9 favorites over Seattle. Cobb has the highest projected property outside of the more expensive pitch options.
Charlie morton has at least 30 FanDuel points in his last three starts, including a 55-point effort in Boston. He has an intriguing clash against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Atlanta. Dodgers offense is good and healthy, but backed by better MLB .315 route BABIP against right-handed pitch. If he keeps going down and maintains his recent strikeout rate, he could be one of the better pivots.
Joe musgrove is one of the top two launchers on both platforms. The offensive setbacks of the Mets are well documented and despite a strong Hard blow percentage (difficult%), they rank in the bottom five in HR / FB. Musgrove has a higher fantastic projection than Kershaw and Kikuchi.
A single game with a projected run total greater than 10, so of course it produces the top stack on FanDuel:
- Matt Olson (L)
- Jed lowrie (S)
- Marc Canha (D)
- Sean Murphy (D)
Total salary: $ 15,200
Kyle Freeland only has two starts for Colorado, and they haven’t gone well. It has a higher walking rate that strikeout, and athletics is Top 10 by taking free passes on the road against lefties. Matt Olson is the only left-hander in this stack. He is generally inferior to lefties but hits .355 against them on the road with four home runs in 36 home plate appearances. Oakland and Colorado are the only teams expected to score more than five points.
If saving pay with this stack is in the cards, replace Olson for Chad Pinder. The swap saves $ 1,000 on FanDuel and only changes the stack projection by 0.5 points.
The Rockies are significantly better against left-handed pitchers (100 wRC +) than right-handed people (69). They are hitting 0.500 at home against lefties. Garrett hampson is one of the top 10 hitters on FanDuel and DraftKings. CJ Cron well rated on FanDuel, while Yonathan Daza is in the top 10 on DraftKings. Adding a Colorado bat to Oakland’s stack is the best way to offend both sides.
DJ Le Mahieu was difficult to trust DFS. His salary has dropped by $ 1,000 on DraftKings and has the opportunity to continue his stronger strikes against lefties, facing Eduardo Rodriguez. LeMahieu’s weighted average (wOBA), ISO, and slugging percentage are all higher in 2021 against lefties.
Fancy a dart throw? LaMonte Wade Jr. has a hit in five of seven appearances since being called up by the Giants on May 28. Two went for home runs and another drove a point. It’s $ 2,000 on FanDuel and $ 3,000 on DraftKings.
Don’t look now, but Francisco lindor is on a six-game hitting streak and has a 3-for-9 career against Joe Musgrove. It costs just $ 3,100 on FanDuel and has a leverage score of 94%.
Another way to pivot on a good pitch is Victor Caratini. It is 4-for-9 with two home runs and four RBIs against deGrom. Caratini’s .444 average against deGrom is his highest against a pitcher.